J.B. Rainsberger talks about the Fundamental Theorem of Agile Software Development. In his talk he refers to Fred Brooks Mythical Man Month(a must read!), accidental vs essential complexity, the cost of a feature, how to do estimations taking both types of complexity into account, reduce accidential complexity using test driven development, the formula cost=f(g(e),h(a))=g(e) + h(a) and why refactoring is necessary to make Agile development work and all of this in 7 minutes and 26 seconds(also the name of his talk).
A must watch!