Last week I was evaluating some application performance characteristics with another architect. Our gut feeling told us that the numbers didn't make sense but we couldn't pinpoint why we had this feeling. This reminded me of a recent Pragmatic Engineer podcast episode with Simon Eskildsen (co-founder of turbopuffer, ex-Shopify). He was talking about a habit that fixes exactly this: napkin math . What is napkin math? Napkin math means estimating how a system should perform, using a few known numbers and some arithmetic. No code, no prototype, no load test. You work from first principles: how fast can this machine read memory, how long does a round trip to S3 take, what does a gigabyte cost? Simon turned this into a project. He collected the real numbers for latency, bandwidth and cost and kept them in a table on GitHub . Then he made flashcards for almost every cell, so he could recall them instantly during a design review. That is a key point: he didn’t look the numb...